う～ん、あと1枚でフラッシュが完成するけど今は役がないしフォールドかなあ…
その場面、もしかしたらコールした方が得かもしれませんよ！
ポーカーをやっていると相手のベットやレイズにコールするかどうか迷う時、ありますよね。
そんな時に一つの指針となるのがオッズとアウツです。
オッズとアウツの概念を理解することによって、確率的な選択ができるようになります。
は？またレイズ？ムカつくからコール！
運命力で引くからコール！
ここは流れが悪い…フォールド！
こういった直感的な選択から一歩進むと、より一層ポーカーを楽しめるようになると思います！
これを覚えれば絶対に勝てるというわけではありませんが、ポーカーをする上で基本となる考え方なので、是非覚えておきましょう！
・アウツとは何か？
・オッズとは何か？
・勝率とオッズの計算方法
アウツとは？
アウツとはあなたが引けばより良い役になり、相手を逆転することができると考えられるカードの枚数のことです。
アウツという言葉を初めて聞いたというあなたでも、おそらくいつも「このカードを引ければ多分勝てる…」と思いながらプレイしていますよね？
多くの場合それがアウツです。
アウツの数え方と例
アウツを数える時には、自身が欲しいカードのうち、すでに見えているカードを除いた残りの枚数を数えます。
わかりやすくするために具体的な例を提示しましょう。
アウツによる勝率の計算
引けば相手を逆転できるカードをアウツとして数えているので、アウツを引く確率を疑似的に勝率と考えることができます。
もちろん、実戦では相手のハンドはわかりませんから、自分がアウツと考えているカードを引いても逆転できない場合も存在します。しかし、勝つ確率を全く知らないのとおおよそ検討がついているのでは、プレイの仕方が変わってきますよね？
アウツを引ける確率の計算は難しくありません。
例えばフロップでアウツが10枚あったとします。フロップまでで自分に見えているカードは5枚なので、52枚のトランプのうち見えていないカードは47枚。
そのうち10枚がアウツなので、次のターンでアウツを引く確率は10/47＝21.3%ということです。
ただ、これはあくまでターンで引く確率です。リバーまでに引く確率を細かく計算すると少し煩雑になるので、大体これを2倍しておけば問題ありません。
しかし、いくら難しくないとはいえ、いちいち計算したり、枚数によって数字を覚えるのは大変ですよね？
ご安心を。2倍と4倍の法則という便利なものがあります。
2倍と4倍の法則
多くのポーカープレイヤーはアウツから推測できる勝率をいちいち正確に計算せずに、この2倍と4倍の法則によって導かれる大まかな値を用いています。
この法則をざっくり説明すると、次の1枚でアウツを引く確率はアウツの枚数×2、次の2枚まででアウツを引く確率はアウツの枚数×4というものです。
フロップが開いた時点では4倍、ターンが開いた時点では2倍しておけばいいということですね。
もちろん近似値しか出せませんが、十分使える精度なのでご安心ください。
ただし、アウツの枚数が多くなればなるほど実際の確率との乖離が大きくなるので気を付けましょう。
アウツの枚数と2倍4倍の法則で出した確率、実際の確率を表にしておくので、大体どのくらい乖離するのかの感覚を掴むことにお役立てください。
| アウツ枚数 | 2倍4倍の法則(2倍/4倍) | 実際の確率(ターン/リバー) | ドローの一例 |
| 1枚 | 2%/4% | 2.1%/4.3% | スリーカード→クワッズ |
| 2枚 | 4%/8% | 4.3%/8.4% | ペア→スリーカード |
| 3枚 | 6%/12% | 6.4％/12.5% | ハイカード→ペア |
| 4枚 | 8%/16% | 8.5%/16.5% | ガットショット |
| 5枚 | 10%/20% | 10.6%/20.4% | |
| 6枚 | 12%/24% | 12.8%/24.1% | |
| 7枚 | 14%/28% | 14.9%/27.8% | |
| 8枚 | 16%/32% | 17.0%/31.5% | オープンエンド |
| 9枚 | 18%/36% | 19.1%/35% | フラッシュドロー |
| 10枚 | 20%/40% | 21.3%/38.4% | |
| 11枚 | 22%/44% | 23.4%/41.7% | ガット＋フラドロ |
| 12枚 | 24%/48% | 25.5%/45% | |
| 13枚 | 26%/52% | 27.7%/48.1% | |
| 14枚 | 28%/56% | 29.8%/51.2% | |
| 15枚 | 30%/60% | 31.9%/54.1% | オープンエンド＋フラドロ |
| 16枚 | 32%/64% | 34%/57% | |
| 17枚 | 34%/68% | 36.2%/59.8% | |
| 18枚 | 36%/72% | 38.3%/62.4% | |
| 19枚 | 38%/76% | 40.4%/65% |
ポーカーにおけるオッズとは？
アウツについて一通り説明したので、次はオッズに参ります。
オッズと言うとまず想像するのは競馬や競艇でしょうか？
この馬が勝ったら何倍になるってやつだね！毎週やってるから知ってるよ！
その通りです！競馬はほどほどにね…。
競馬を嗜む方々も、このオッズとその馬の情報を見比べながら美味しい馬券を探しているわけです。
では、競馬におけるオッズとはどのような意味でしょうか？
当たった時に賭けたお金が何倍になるかという意味ですよね。
ポーカーでは公営ギャンブルのようにオッズが表示されることはありませんが、オッズを計算することができます。
ポーカーにおけるオッズの計算方法
ポーカーにおけるオッズも競馬や競艇と同じく、
何ドル出して勝ったときにいくらになって返ってくるのか
ということです。つまりは、
コールした時のポットの額（勝ったときに返ってくる額）/コールに必要な金額
という風に計算できるわけですね。具体例を見てみましょう。
このように計算されるオッズと、アウツから導かれる勝率を組み合わせて考えることによって、そのコールが割りのいいアクションなのか、そうではないのかの判断材料にすることができます。
オッズとアウツと期待値
オッズとアウツについて分かったので、これらの2つから自身のアクションの期待値を考えてみましょう。
期待値とは？
期待値という言葉を聞いたことがありますか？
ギャンブルをする方なら1度は聞いたことがあるでしょう。また、学生時代に数学の授業で習った方も多いかと思います。
期待値とは、ある試行を行ったときに得られる数値の平均値のことを言います。
例えば、コインの裏表を当てるギャンブルで、裏を当てると掛け金の3倍が返ってくる（裏のオッズ3倍）と仮定します。
このゲームをn回行って全て裏にXドル賭けるとしましょう。コインの裏が出る確率は50%ですから、期待値を計算すると、
(50%×Xドル×3×n回)×1/n=1.5Xドル
となります。1回の試行に必要な額がXドルで、平均して1回当たり1.5Xドルが得られるということなので、この試行は理論的にはやり続ければ絶対に勝てるギャンブルというわけです。
ギャンブラーはしばしば期待値を%で表します。「期待値100%を超える～」とか言っているのをよく聞きますよね。これは上記の例で言うと、Xドルを出して何％が返ってくるかを見ていて、100%を超えれば元金以上が返ってくるので勝てる行為だと判断することができるのです。
オッズとアウツから期待値を計算する
オッズがわかるようになり、アウツから疑似勝率を求めることができるようになったので、これらから期待値を計算してみましょう。
先ほどのコイントスの例では(50%×Xドル×3×n回)×1/n=1.5Xドルという計算式が出てきました。
ここで欲しい情報は1.5(150%)の部分です。期待値の説明をするために賭け金と試行回数をX、nと置きましたが、これらは実戦では不要で、実際には3倍（オッズ）と確率（50%）さえわかれば150%という数字を導くことができますね。
従って、ポーカーにおいてはオッズと疑似勝率を掛けて、100%を超えれば利益的なコールというように簡単に判断することができるんです！
・あなたのハンド：6h7h
・相手のハンド：JJ
ターン：A42K ツーハート
現在のポット額：200ドル
相手が25ドルベットしてあなたのアクション
あなたのアウツはフラッシュドローの9枚、疑似勝率（リバーでハートを引く確率）は9×2=18%です。
コールには25ドルが必要でその時ポットは250ドルになるのでオッズは10倍。
期待値を計算すると18%×10=180%となるので、このコールは確率的に肯定されます。
先ほどと同じ状況で相手のベット額が100ドルだったとしましょう。
疑似勝率は変わらず18%ですが、オッズは400ドル/100ドルで4倍に変わります。
従って期待値は18%×4=72%となり、このコールは確率的に否定されてしまいます。
期待値はベット額を決める時にも使える!?
期待値が自身がコールするか否かの判断材料になることはお分かりいただけたかと思いますが、これは裏を返すとこれを使って自分がベットするときにその額を決めることにも役立つということです。
先ほどの例であなたと相手の立場が逆だったと考えてみてください。
例1のようにベット額が安すぎると、フラッシュドローに対して楽々と期待値プラスのコールをするチャンスを与えてしまいます。
一方で例2のベットをした場合には、相手がフラッシュドローだった場合に、コールしたら期待値マイナスという状況を押し付けることができます。
これは実践例というより説明のための一例ですが、例えばブラフをしようと思った時などに、降ろしたいハンドに対していくらベットすれば降りてくれるか（期待値マイナスと判断してくれるか）を考えてベット額を決めることで効率的なベットサイズを選択できそうですね！
まとめ
今回はオッズとアウツについての記事を書きました。
コールすべきかの判断、ベット額の選択にオッズとアウツという概念を用いることによって、理論的には利益的なアクションを取ることができるようになるはずです。
初心者の内はこういったことを考えずにプレーしているため、ポットオーバーのオールインにガットショットで果敢にコールするなんてことをやってしまいがちです。
まずはオッズとアウツを理解して、初心者から一歩抜け出すことを目指してみてはいかがでしょうか？
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Dünyaca ünlü medyum haluk hocayı sizlere tanıtıyoruz anlatıyoruz, Avrupanın ilk ve tek medyum hocası 40 yıllık uzmanlık ve tecrübesi ile sizlerle.
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Dünyaca ünlü medyum haluk hocayı sizlere tanıtıyoruz anlatıyoruz, Avrupanın ilk ve tek medyum hocası 40 yıllık uzmanlık ve tecrübesi ile sizlerle.
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Belçika’nın en iyi medyumu medyum haluk hoca ile sizlerde en iyi çalışmalara yakınsınız, hemen arayın farkı görün.
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Medyum haluk hoca avrupanın en güvenilir medyum hocasıdır, sizlerinde bilgiği gibi en iyi medyumu bulmak zordur, biz sizlere geldik.
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Ünlülerin tercih ettiği medyum hocamıza dilediğiniz zaman ulaşabilirsiniz, medyum haluk hocamız sizlerin daimi yanında olacaktır.
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Birincisi güvenilir medyum hocaları bulmak olacaktır, ikinci seçenek ise en iyi medyumları bulmak olacaktır, siz hangisini seçerdiniz.
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Sizler için en iyi medyum hoca tanıtımı yapıyoruz, Avrupanın en ünlü medyum hocası haluk yıldız hoca sizlerin güvenini hızla kazanmaya devam ediyor.
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Dünyaca ünlü medyum haluk hoca, 40 yıllık uzmanlık ve tecrübesi ile sizlere en iyi hizmetleri vermeye devam ediyor, Aşk büyüsü bağlama büyüsü giden sevigiliyi geri getirme.
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